We have developed a sophisticated opt-in scale for Elite Racing’s main betting strategy, Elite Combo.

Whilst our results include all bets, we have always recommended $2.30 as the minimum AM odds cut-off point for Elite Combo bettors.

Since January 2021, there have been 147 of those <$2.30 Elite-Combo qualifiers.
82 won which is a win strike-rate of 55.8%.
The $10k bank net profit for those rejects is + $3,222 (+16.8% P/TO)

As promised, we have developed a much more sophisticated cut-off than simply $2.30 AM odds.

We have been able to allocate a grading (or vulnerability scale) of 1 to 10 for every Elite Combo qualifier.

1 = high-risk – serious issues discovered that escaped previous algorithm penalty. One simple example is closer scrutiny of the speed map. Eg: back-markers drawing barrier #1.

10 = very strong, no extra negatives found.

Recommendation

This is not exact science, but the scale certainly produces better long-term strike-rates and profit-rates as the grading number gets higher.

We will demonstrate this with statistics, spreadsheet and pdf printout but for those who don’t care what’s under the bonnet, here is our recommendation:

• As a bare minimum, ALL selections graded 1 should be avoided.
• We recommend to bet only if the grade is 5 or higher, rejecting all qualifiers graded LESS THAN 5.
• So, instead of summarily dismissing all less than $2.30 AM odds qualifiers, (Like Evaporate last Saturday) simply bet on all qualifiers – as listed – that are graded five or higher.

That eliminates just one in ten bets but avoids losses (2021-2026) of more than $4,000.

Elite Combo bets are already allocated a bet scale which considers previously factored variables.
This innovation is simply to help find a more viable opt-in level than $2.30 min AM odds.

Analysis

Members who utilise their online spreadsheet can analyse in much more depth than we can here.

Elite Combo 2021-2026: Opt-In Grading 1-4

Elite Combo 2021-2026: Opt-In Grading 5-10

Elite Combo 2021-2026: Opt-In Grading 1-10

Q&A

Q: Is this replacing the existing Elite Combo approach?
A: No. Elite Combo will still operate as normal. The new grade is an extra opt-in guide for members who want a more refined filter than the old $2.30 AM odds cut-off.

Q: Do I have to use the new grading scale?
A: No. This is completely optional. Members can continue betting the listed qualifiers exactly as before if they prefer.

Q: What does the 1 to 10 grade mean?
A: It is a vulnerability scale. A lower grade means extra risk factors were found after deeper analysis. A higher grade means fewer negatives were found.

Q: Does a Grade 1 horse have no chance of winning?
A: No. Any qualifier can still win. A low grade simply means there are more warning signs, so over time those selections are expected to continue to be unproductive.

Q: Why not just keep using the $2.30 AM odds cut-off?
A: The $2.30 cut-off was a simple benchmark. The new grading scale is more sophisticated because it considers extra negatives that price alone may not capture.

Q: What grade should I bet from?
A: Our recommendation is to reject all qualifiers graded below 5 and bet only on qualifiers graded 5 or higher.

Q: Will this drastically reduce the number of bets?
A: No. Based on the analysis; it eliminates only about one in ten bets.

Q: What is the benefit if it only removes one in ten bets?
A: The aim is not to reduce activity heavily. The aim is to remove the most vulnerable qualifiers while keeping the majority of Elite Combo opportunities.

Q: Could I use the 1-10 scale to develop my own bet sizes, not necessarily the as-listed bet size?
A: Of course, I am sure astute spreadsheet analysts will do exactly that – but that must be up to each individual to develop any personal variation to the as-listed bet amount.

Q: Is this exact science?
A: No. Racing will always involve uncertainty. However, the historical data indicates that strike-rates and profit-rates improve as the grading number gets higher.

Q: Can members choose a stricter level than Grade 5?
A: Yes. Some members may prefer only Grade 6, 7 or higher. That will reduce bet numbers further, so each member should choose a level that suits their style and risk tolerance.

Q: Can members still bet below Grade 5 if they want to?
A: Yes. The opt-in grading is a guide, not a rule. Members remain free to follow every qualifier or to apply their own cut-off.

Q: Is this mainly about protecting the betting bank?
A: Yes. The purpose is to help members avoid the most vulnerable selections and make more informed staking decisions over the long term.

Q: Will you provide evidence for the grading?
A: Yes. The statistics, spreadsheet and PDF printouts are intended to show how the different grades have performed historically. No bets have been changed, just the opt-in scale has been added.

Q: What is the simple takeaway?
A: Keep using Elite Combo as normal, but if you want a smarter opt-in filter, consider betting only those qualifiers graded 5 or higher.