I hope everybody read the extra warning that was added to Saturday’s Mel ratings in regards to track condition changes.
It simply reminded members that it is recommended not to bet if the track condition changes two or more grades from the “rated-to” grading.
It is so important that we must repeat the excerpt from your intro-pak here.
Saturday’s Ballarat ratings were to a track rated 4/5. Members who could apply our recommendation would have been happy to bet on a 3, 4 or 5.
Here is what happened when the forecast rain was well in excess of what was expected:
Race 1 was run on a G-4, as rated to. Our E4 bet (and Mel-Pro strategy bet) Hypothetical, won easily.
Our next bet’s race (Right You Are) was run on a SOFT-7. Three grades away from the ‘rated to’ grade.
By Atishu’s race (R-8) it was HEAVY-8.
I realise that some of you place the bets when you get the raceday bet list. That’s fine, the results we keep reflect your results. But those who can apply the going recommendation are doing a lot better.
We are building good data on this with the Mel Combo and Mel-Pro strategy. Spreadsheet users would be aware of the extra columns with this data for every rated race going back to Jan 2022 which keep track of rated-to / actual going.
Look at this:
Here are all the Mel-Combo bets this season:
The right-hand column shows the difference between ‘rated to’ and actual going at the time of the race.
Excellent overall stats considering the unusually high percentage of races run on the wrong track condition.
Mel Combo Bets this season on track conditions TWO or MORE more grades from “rated to”.
Mel-Combo Bets this season on track conditions ONE grade from “rated to”.
Mel Combo Bets this season on the correct track conditions as “rated to”.
If you are in a position to apply the track-condition recommendation then, in the log run, you will win a lot more.
The good news is that the great majority of meetings are run on going that we expect. It is just that the last few months have been a bit weird weather-wise.
Regards
Larry and Richard
