Today we will reveal our research that identifies Elite Racing’s professional betting sweet spot.
Firstly, Saturday’s Profits
Mostly profitable outcomes on Saturday:
Nationwide Top-2: + $950. (nine winners from 12 races).
Platinum E4 + $180
Mel Combo: +$160
Mel Eachway Master: + $315
Syd Combo – $40
Nationwide Best – $240
Odds and Profits
Over the past few years the bookie landscape has been constantly changing. Just a handful of corporates are controlling everything and a bit of digging into our results is confirming that a lot more main contenders are being squeezed into that less-than $3.00 (am odds) range.
These days, so many more horses that should be 3/1 or 4/1 shots (that’s $4.00 or $5.00) are being wound in to that cramped less-than $3.00 area.
At the other end of the scale, those $14 chances that provided so much profit in years gone by are being identified better by the bookies and are being kept much safer in the $10 or less range.
The horses that they list at greater than $10 are the ones they consider no-chance. To make their market, these horses are offered at overs.
Our research is finding that there is no value in backing those less-than $3.00 shots or trying for that increasingly rare double-figure winner.
Mel/Syd Combo Betting As-Listed live
Mel/Syd Combo betting As-Listed for 2022 and 2023:
A Mel-Syd Combo Less Than $3.00 (AM Odds):
32 winners from 89 bets (36% winners) @ $2.39 (BOB)
Bet $14,030, Return $11,399. LOSS = $2,631 (-19%)
B Mel-Syd Combo greater than $10.00 (AM Odds):
1 winner from 14 bets (7.1% winners) @ $8.00 (BOB)
Bet $1,990, Return $1,280. LOSS = $710 (-36%)
A + B Mel-Syd Combo Less Than $3.00 OR greater than $10.00 (AM Odds):
33 winners from 103 bets (32% winners) @ $2.56 (BOB)
Bet $16,020, Return $12,769. LOSS = $3,341 (-21%)
Combo Sweet Spot:
Mel-Syd Combo between $3.00 and $10.00 (AM Odds):
52 winners from 210 bets (24.5% winners) @ $4.77 (BOB)
Bet $32,215, Return $38,754. PROFIT = $6,539 (+ 20.3%) live as-listed.
It’s all about value. In the “sweet spot”, the 24.5% strike rate is much lower than the 32% of the A+B bets (less than $3.00 or more than $10 AM odds) but the profit difference could not be more stark.
The bookies have forced a lot more horses into the under $3.00 range that should not be there. They are way under their true odds and virtually impossible to profit from.
Platinum E4 betting As-Listed live
The Platinum E4 bets went live in August 2022.
Let’s check to see if the area of profitability is similar to the Mel and Syd Combo betting.
A Platinum E4 Less Than $3.00 (AM Odds):
10 winners from 34 bets (29% winners) @ $2.38 (BOB)
Bet $4,830, Return $3,263. LOSS = $1,568 (-32%)
B Platinum E4 greater than $10.00 (AM Odds):
0 winner from 9 bets (0% winners)
Bet $1,200, Return $NIL. LOSS = $1,200 (-100%)
A+B Platinum E4 Less Than $3.00 OR greater than $10.00 (AM Odds):
10 winners from 43 bets (23% winners) @ $2.38 (BOB)
Bet $6,030, Return $3,263. LOSS = $2,768 (-46%)
E4 Sweet Spot:
Platinum E4 between $3.00 and $10.00 (AM Odds):
33 winners from 117 bets (28% winners) @ $4.90 (BOB)
Bet $16,740, Return $23,112. PROFIT = $6,372 (+ 38%) live as-listed.
Fortunately, the majority of our qualifying bets are in the sweet spot and, despite the A and B bets’ drag on profits, the overall live-as-listed bottom line is excellent.
Our point of difference from all the other tipsters is that we can carry the dead wood whilst the goal posts are moving and still turn a nice profit because most of our tips are in the lucrative $3.00 to $10 value area.
Averaging 28% winners at $4.90 is unheard of. That is exactly what the live Platinum E4 bets in the $3.00 to $10 range are achieving.
Conclusion
This analysis is food for thought and was based solely on one variable – the morning odds (AM Odds).
Spreadsheet users can take this further and almost certainly achieve even better outcomes with a few other simple filters (track condition, distance etc) that may be considered compatible with this research.
At this stage we are not considering a blanket elimination of the less than $3.00 or greater than $10 AM odds qualifiers. Some members would be working with those qualifiers in their own way so we need to continue to include them.
We have brought it to your attention and provided compelling data. I am sure if you decide to take the above stats into account for any plan that your using, and focus within the sweet spot, then your profits will be greatly enhanced.
AM Odds
We include the AM odds for rated races on the Melbourne and Sydney Raceday Pro-Sheet. It is not an exact science. We try to provide a consistently accurate guide as to the odds being offered in the morning after scratchings.
You can do this yourself by choosing a bookie and noting the price being offered during race-morning betting. Stay consistent with the same bookie and the same time for best results.
