Rosco works in finance and has been using Elite Racing tips for over 20 years. He discusses the influence of writer Don Scott and how he organises his betting as a business with personal strategies running beside Elite Racing. He maintains that for people who want to take their betting more seriously, but don’t have time to do their own research. For Rosco, Elite Racing offers a professional horse race tipping service that is both simple to use and effective for generating positive results.
How did you approach betting on races before you started using Elite Racing as your professional horse race tipping service?
I used to pretty much do my own race weighting assessments. There was a set of books written in the seventies by a guy called Don Scott. He wrote all about the law of probability, assessing barriers, weights, track conditions, quality of jockeys, and distances, taking a whole lot of variables into account and then turning all of that into a mathematical equation.
The founders of Elite Racing had a programme where they did all that collateral work for me. So I joined them to get the collateral data. I still, to this day, use Elite Racing, Larry and Ric, for the same reason – I want the ratings. I want to be able to look at a race and see what each of the horse’s probability is.
So for example, if you’ve got 10 horses in the race, each horse has got a 10% chance of winning before you take into account class, weight, distance, jockey, trainer, previous form, class of horse, et cetera, et cetera. So in a perfect world, each race should be factored at a hundred per cent. if you go to the races on a Saturday, the bookmakers run a book at about 120%. So that means people are investing $120, but the bookmakers are only paying out a hundred.
So what these sorts of ratings do is they technically rate a race at about 80, 85%. What I use their programme for, is if a horse is rated a $4 chance, I want double the value. So $4 in the old was three-to-one. So three-to-one times two is six-to-one. So, in other words, $7. So if the boys at Elite Racing, on a Saturday morning, rate a horse $4 and I can get more than $7, then that’s my bet. I do that predominantly all the time, so that’s what’s called overlay betting. So if a horse is rated a certain rating and the bookmakers are foolish enough to give me double the price, then I load up.I know when Larry and Richard promote their programme, they probably don’t focus on the law of overlays and things of that nature, but I am still old school and that’s what I do. So I predominantly just do that. And then also on a Saturday, I take their top five, six, or seven selections, and I box them all up in a quadrella.
What’s different financially for you since you’ve started using Elite Racing horse tipping services?
I treat it as a business. I know a lot of people who go to the track on a Saturday or sit at home or sit in a pub and It’s more recreational. I set it up many years ago as an actual business. I bet a percentage of my bank. I have various degrees. If the boys rate a horse under $3, I have a larger bet than if it’s rated between $3 and $5. If it’s rated $5 to $7.50, I do another percentage. And then, if it’s rated over $7.50, I have another percentage. So I grade them A, B, C, D. It is a very disciplined and mathematical approach. That’s the only way… Well, for me anyway, otherwise you lose your head.
I love their Nationwide Best if you are someone on a Saturday who hasn’t got time to do any research of your own. You just want to get an email saying, “Well, these are the 10 horses you put your money on today.” You don’t have to worry about anything.
Whereas what I do is I get their collateral data at half past nine on a Saturday morning, and then I print it all out, and then I go, and I scour Betfair, Sportsbet, Ladbrokes, to see what the current odds are. If I can get double the value, then I will bet on the horse straight away. Otherwise, I keep in play. I will sit there all day till they jump, just to see. Because quite often, late in betting, a horse will come in, or more importantly, a horse will blow out in the market. I find that the collateral, the data Elite Racing provides me, is so useful. I haven’t got the time or the hours in a day to do all that myself anymore, so I’ve been using their system for 20-odd years.
What is Elite Racing’s key point of difference from other Australian professional horse race tipping services?
Well, in my case, there’s no emotion. Whereas a lot of those types of systems, if a horse was unlucky last start, they automatically rate it better. Whereas if the horse was unlucky last start It’s like rolling the dice. So if you roll the dice six times and number one has not come up at all, the emotive gambler will say, “Well, number one’s got to come up soon.” But the sensible person will know that each roll of the dice is a whole new set of circumstances and that a 1 coming up on a roll of the dice is no different than a 4, 5, 6 or whatever. Elite Racing helps you keep the emotion out of it when you are deciding what to back. They bring it down to probabilities. The facts. So you’re relying on their ability to assess the various parts.
Each horse has got its own idiosyncrasies. Some are very good from their first start, some are not good till their third or fourth start. Some horses drop back, and if it’s a smaller field and they drop back, then the chances of them getting enough room to run on are greater. But if the horse has drawn badly and it’s a big field, then they might not be able to get a gap or a break. And I think the boys pretty much factor all that in.
And as I said, my lord and master on all of this many years ago was a gentleman called Don Scott. And he wrote three or four award-winning books, bestselling books, all around this genuine law of probability.
Do you recommend Elite Racing to your friends as a better horse race tipping strategy?
Well, I do, but guess what? None of them is disciplined enough to use it properly.
When you’re recommending it, what reasons do you give to them?
Ease and simplicity. You can put the kettle on a Saturday morning and have your piece of toast. And then at 9:30, the Sydney analysis or the Melbourne analysis will just pop up, and it’ll just give you the names of each of the horses. It’ll give you what Elite Racing has assessed the value of that horse to be, the true value of that horse to be. And that’s based on their set of circumstances.
So, look, I don’t know how many individual indicators they use, but Don Scott used to use maybe 10 or 15 variables. Back in those days, you had to do it all manually. Whereas now, it’s all computers and everything. Elite Racing has obviously created the software to harness all the information. And look, I might go five races and never have a bet. Again, to a lot of people, that would be frustrating.
Can you make any comment about the ethics of Elite Racing?
Well, I think the fact that I’ve been a fully paid-up member for over 20 years, and I’m a cynical chap by my nature, if they weren’t delivering on an annual basis – if I weren’t making money, I wouldn’t keep using them. Listen, everyone has peaks and troughs. There are so many variables on a race course. So you can rate a horse on a soft five and then by the time the race comes around it’s a heavy eight. Well, the form’s thrown out the window. It’s of no value. But I’m not going to play a round of golf. I’m not putting my bets on before I go and play golf. Physically, I stay, and I spend my entire Saturday afternoon. That’s my business on a Saturday afternoon. I’ve got banks, I’ve got set banks for Sydney, for Melbourne, for my quadrellas, and I even have a bank for silly bets. If I do get a moment of weakness or I just think to myself, “I think that’s a good chance,” well, by all means, play.
